| Authors have learned
that it's no longer good enough to write the book and sit back
and think of royalties. They have to get out there and sell
the books because marketing and promotion involve a lot more
than sending out a few review copies. They have to understand
the processes whereby their words turn into the finished product
– and then they have to sell and market that product.
I predict that some big name authors will skip
publishing houses altogether and go straight to the retailers,
particularly the big chains and probably the supermarkets. There's
nothing to stop a TESCO or Asda from commissioning novels in
just the same way as they commission own-brand cookery books.
The merchandising buyer could simply commission an author or
an expert to produce the words and pics and then the publishing
services department will handle the production (most supermarket
chains have huge print-buying facilities).
The same is true of Amazon. Electronic publications
can be disseminated throughout the world without the need for
separate rights negotiations for different countries and without
the costs of distribution or reprinting (provided permissions
have been granted). Already Amazon and Google have made deals
whereby 10% of the books they sell can be read on the web: why
not 100%? Why not produce a copy of the book by POD every time
they receive an order?
Open copyright-free access, perceived as a threat
to academic and scientific publishers and libraries, will become
common place. Information and Computing Technologies –
yes, another acronym, ICT - have already enabled 'comprehensive
information environments', based on cyber infrastructure, such
as collaboratories or grid communities, to be built. The Proceedings
of Scientific Conferences, the latest research papers, can be
made available through such communities. It's not going to be
stopped by arguments over open access (though it is going to
have a profound effect on the funding that was previously obtained
from copyright royalties).
The big fuss in the booktrade that spelled gloom
and doom seven years ago was the abolition of the Net Book Agreement
but it hasn't lead to the collapse of publishing houses, nor
a decrease in the 100k plus titles published every year. It
has lead to criticism, the deep discounting of supermarkets,
the ‘2 for 3’ offers that means many a worthy book
not included in such offers is by passed. So it has meant, and
will increasingly do so in the future, that the back list and
the mid list titles have suffered in their sales. But technology
has come to their aid, too. At least POD means that a book need
never go out of print – not much comfort for an author
if that means only one copy in cyberspace!
Self-publishing and niche publishing will increase
as technology, from the desktop to the PoD, becomes increasingly
available for a relatively small sums, and for small users.
That’s the point: technology is not just in the hands
of the conglomerates whose role, as the major players in publishing,
is increasingly reduced. The word ‘conglomerate’
inspires hostility among quite a large amount of people but
very often reflects bias rather than analytical thinking. Small
publishers are just as capable of producing garbage as big publishers
and I can remember many an independent publishing house of great
renown paying its lower-ranking employers a pittance with lousy
working conditions.
What may suffer in the future is standards.
Unit cost, increasingly faster schedules and current market
demands can mean that the creative input is barren and bare.
Short cuts for big bucks. So publishers and publishing will
have to become professional because a profession requires standards.
Publishing is termed an 'industry', not a profession. Standards
are ‘perceived’ and we think they are dropping,
lead by tabloids and television for whom the sensational, the
trivial and the profitable are the criteria for broadcasting.
I believe publishing in the future will demand
more qualifications, more training, more courses that cover
the plethora of skills that will have to be found in the individual,
not in separate departments. Employers will need to know that
you can do the job – and the qualifications will speak
for you because you’ve acquired the skills and the standards
that the job demands.
So I'll end on a plug for the new IP3, the Institutes
of Paper, Printing and Publishing. IP3 has been established
for you as individuals, for you to acquire these necessary skills,
for you to be a professional. You can join now - look us up
on the web - and make sure that whatever changes takes place
in the future, you'll be part of them.
I don't see a doom and gloom future for publishing.
So long as the market persists and profit can be derived from
supplying that market, publishers will continue to produce the
printed version and exploiting the electronic version. Video
was forecast to be the end of publishing in the 70s, CD-Rom
in the 80s, the web now. We were wrong then and would be wrong
now to regard the future as anything but adapting to change
- and preserving the best. It's your future and I predict you'll
have a lot more choice than we did in the 20th Century.
Colin Walsh, 27 October 2004
cw@bpccam.co.uk
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